500 team can be described by a normal (bell-shaped) curve, with an average of 81 wins and a standard deviation (SD) of about six wins. (That’s hard to do with real players, but easy in a simulation game like APBA.) Again, on average, each team should win 81 games against each other, but, again, the records could vary significantly from 81–81, and the difference would be due to luck.Īs it turns out, the range and frequency of possible records of a. Suppose you were able to clone a copy of the New York Yankees, and play the cloned team against the real one. Just by random chance alone, your team might go 85–77, or 80–82, or even 69–93. But for any individual season, the record may vary significantly from 81-81. You’d expect, on average, to get 81 wins and 81 losses. Each time it lands heads, that’s a win, and when it lands tails, that’s a loss. Suppose you take a coin and flip it 162 times to simulate a season. 34 (2005).Ī team’s season record is massively influenced by luck. This article was published in SABR’s Baseball Research Journal, Vol.
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